外汇/贵金属波浪分析

12月开始了。我经历过的过去33年中，每年年尾市场只有两类发展。其一是零碎的，混乱的，令人沮丧的，另一个是传球游戏，因为没有人愿意持有头寸，因流动性很低。我估计我们稍后将看到后者。

'12月4日是非农就业数据公告。总体来看，美元强势上升的基础在建立中，基础浪应会在12月首周完成。
欧元及澳元也是在观望上述发展。


现在对于美元兑日元我稍微关注。有一个48周的周期低点 – 可能是在12月的第一周或者第二周。
'因此关注美元兑日元。很可能在横盘中反弹至125.85高点，但再回到116.16下方。不过，我变得稍微关心时间进度，以及实际上是否可以发展到。请注意这一点 –　别过于期望它会冲破125.85上方...


欧元兑英镑基本上有一个总体呈下降趋势，但看起来有一些广泛的波动。我也对欧元兑日元关注。我早前看欧元兑日元的目标已出现，但我也关注欧元兑美元和美元兑日元同样在下跌中 – 这可能引发更强的下跌...
白银已打破了前低(日图/周图)......这需要另一次调整，但注意调整前或先要反弹修正。


祝交易成功!

如想看完整波浪分析报告，掌握现货黄金、现货白银及外汇走势，请向英伦在线客户索取《11.24 贵金属/外汇波浪分析报告》

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

'Building up a Dollar bullish outcome


Here we are in the final week of November and moving into the dreaded dissipation of liquidity as December begins. Over the 33 years I have gone through year-end markets there are basically only two types of development. The first is a scrappy, messy, frustrating and hair pulling out development and the other is a game of pass the parcel because nobody wants to hold a position because liquidity is so low. I suspect, following what has been an incredibly horrible market that we’re going to see the latter. 

'For the coming week, and keeping in mind Thursday’s Thanksgiving and therefore a quiet Friday also, the market will already be in the holiday season. Next Friday will be the Non Farm Payrolls. Overall, the coming week is likely to be completing the foundation waves for the next larger rally in the Dollar. These foundation waves will probably be complete by late this week or early next. Once they are in place do be aware that there is a risk of some ptty strong directional trading…


All three Europeans and the Aussie are likely to be looking for the above outlook.


Now for USDJPY I am slightly concerned. There is a 48-week cycle low – either in the first week of December or maybe the second. So, watch this pair 
'carefully. It may well rally to the 125.85 high in a flat correction but then see a recycling back to 116.16 and below. However, I am becoming slightly concerned with the timeframe and whether this can actually develop. Take care with this – particularly with the comments above about the potential for the Dollar to be strong – don’t fight a break above 125.85…


EURGBP basically has an overall downward trend but does look to have some broad swings. This will require some care with the whips that can occur. I also have some concern over EURJPY. The targets I have had for some while are definitely on the cards but I’m also wary about both EURUSD and USDJPY both dropping – that could trigger stronger losses than I would like… 
The metals… oh, the metals… Even Silver has broken the pvious daily/weekly low… This has required yet another adjustment but both seem to need a correction higher. The only puzzle that needs to be solved is the comparative depth of the correction. Gold appears to need a deeper pullback than Silver. However, Silver requires a complex (probably flat) correction while Gold needs a more steady, ratcheting higher. It may just work but take care her also. 

Have a profitable week.


Good trading