贵金属/外汇波浪分析

'美元涨势基础正在构筑


这是一个相当困难的两周，但周五欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞郎的发展进行得非常好，并应已证实美元见低点。美元未来几个星期应该会继续上涨。当然，美元会在途中有一些修正 – 甚至是颇深的回调 - 但总体看涨潜力强大。目前，欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞郎真的没有太多的下跌空间，因此现在我们应关注看涨反转的迹象。
'欧元方面，英镑兑美元一直像醉酒的蜘蛛在移动，而可能继续下去。一旦它到达1.5018-40区域，我们可能会看到一些深层次的修正 - 不仅深，或可能是一个复杂的平走。所以，不要对英镑抱有指望，对其应该采快速超短线交易策略。因此，看跌的欧元兑美元跌势与相当静态的英镑兑美元，我们可能会看到欧元兑英镑继续其较大的下跌。


与此同时，澳元走势与过去一年的走势呈相反。这两天起应有相当的下跌 - 它现在已十分接近回调目标，我们需要小心它随时转跌…
'美元兑日元在过去的一个月，处于痛苦的横盘整理。周五它跌破了我一直关注其三角形态，接着是更大幅的反弹。这表明它更有可能是在一个平坦校正中。因此，一旦接近121.30-50区域，注意有无看跌反转的迹象和注意推动因素。理想情况下，若小时图看跌背离加强，这将意味着它会走向更低...
最近黄金和白银一直比较波动。要预测它们的走势并不容易，但只要我们看到涨幅有限（或者看到了他们的高点），黄金便很有可能下降至1,077.25以下- 但可能是一个非常短暂逗留。我们也应该从银得到确认信息。银似乎见浪(ii)中扩大横行，所以我们应该找到浪EFC和黄金低点一同发生......


祝交易成功。


同样，如上述所说，欧元兑美元跌势是坚定的。因此，我们可以预计欧元兑日元将被拖累，在扩大持平，而当美元兑日元完成横走，欧元兑日元将有较大幅度的下跌风险。

如想看完整波浪分析报告，掌握现货黄金、现货白银及外汇走势，请向英伦在线客户索取《5.12贵金属/外汇波浪分析报告》

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

'Building a base for Dollar gains…


It has been a rather difficult two weeks or so but Friday’s development in EURUSD and USDCHF worked exceptionally well and should have confirmed a Dollar low. This should be the one that extends gains over the coming few weeks. Of course, there’ll be some corrections on the way – and I can’t rule out moderately deep retracements – but overall the bullish outcome has much stronger potential from this point. Currently both EURUSD and USDCHF really don’t have much space to correct lower (Dollar-wise) and therefore the objective from here is to observe for bullish reversal indications. 
'Out of the Europeans, it’s GBPUSD that holds a rather more introspective outlook. It has been moving rather like a drunken spider – and this certainly looks likely to continue. Once it has reached the 1.5018-40 area we’re likely to see some deep corrections – not only deep but probably a complex – flat or expanded flat is favoured. So don’t expect the world from the Pound and if anything, some quick scalping trades could work quite well. Therefore, given the more bearish EURUSD versus a rather static GBPUSD we’re likely to see EURGBP resume its larger decline. 


Meanwhile, the Aussie has been doing the opposite of the direct moves of the past year or so and is now tending to make use of the full width of corrective structures within the impulsive decline. We’re actually due a decent drop from today – maybe tomorrow – but it’s so close to the retracement target that we need be aware of losses resuming any time now…
'
In USDPY over the past month and a bit, we have seen some painful sideways consolidation. I was always wary of the triangle pattern and Friday provided a drop that broke the triangle, only to see a deeper recovery. This tends to suggest that we’re more likely in a flat correction. Thus, once approaching the 121.30-50 area, watch for bearish reversal indications and note momentum conditions. Ideally we’ll need an hourly bearish divergence to add confidence. This would imply a more lower…


Equally, as mentioned above in EURUSD, the decline should be firm. Therefore we can expect EURJPY to be dragged down and later one, when the expanded flat in USDJPY is complete there will be more risk of more substantial losses…


Gold and Silver have been rather volatile of late. It’s not the easiest of times to be forecasting but as long as we see limited gains (or have seen their highs) there’s a good risk of a move down to below 1,077.25 low in Gold – but could be a very brief sojourn. We should have a confirmation from Silver here too. It appears to be seeing an expanded flat in Wave (ii) so we should find the Wave EFC and the Gold low coincide…


Have a profitable week.


Good trading